tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg March 7, 2019 9:00pm-11:00pm EST
pretty. steep losses in china. the ecb following this course, turning dovish overnight. we will see if that helps sentiment. everybody is worried about global growth. rishaad: this is what the oecd said earlier this week am a downgrading forecast. the bright side, japan, gdp numbers must be pleasing. we are looking forward to trade data. there is only one direction, read across the screen. this, as we saw what happened on wall street, negativity there. down for a fourth day in a row. down.ng kong market, 1.3% the nikkei shrugging off that good news with regards to growth. let's look ahead. an hour before trade numbers out of china.
let me bring up this terminal chart, showing january. there was a big surprise. we saw this move. stronger than expected china trade data coming through. the bottom chart shows yellow exports, up 10%. imports also climbing, but just about flat. the monthly trade balance bouncing back again and defying predictions. that is the position we do have. were looking for that number and about an hour. find out what is going on with regards to our mliv commentary in singapore. tell us about what is going on with regards to these equities in china with this cross the board slide for main indices. people willhink
need to shock the china market is having a correction. it is probably overdue. people have been wondering how long it can sustain these extraordinary rallies. all the main indices are well up over 20% this year on huge drawings, massive inflows, and some of that is pretty hot money. you have to wonder whether we need a consolidation. it is possible the ecb was the excuse, and that is what is going on. there may be disappointed with thenpc, although tax cuts and things look good. i think a lot of the shock had been priced into the market already. china hearing some talk is not rushing to finalize the deal with the united states, looking for more time to
negotiate, so some backtracking there as well. for investorsons to say let's take money off the table. it has in an extraordinary run. what we have seen overnight gives them the excuse. the big question is whether or not china can endure a 5%, 6% correction, then continue with the rally, or going up in a straight line and coming down in a straight line. it will be an interesting few days in china markets. yvonne: you are posing that question for our viewers. is this a pause? a healthy correction in china? or everyone is taking a pause? or something more ominous, perhaps global growth concerns, and are more severe than we thought at the start of the year? >> i would go with the healthy correction. the medium-term picture, china
is good. the stimulus in place in the early part of the year will help a lot. we will see in prove data in the second quarter. we will see china look better on that front. what we have seen from the npc is they are against any hard landing in china. china steered the economy as carefully as they can, doing what they can with liquidity and lending, a targeted approach. the chinese authorities are doing everything they can to ensure decent growth in china. the offshore factors will look better once the trade deal has been signed with the united states than the general picture outside will look better as well. there are some concerns european growth is slow, but china can probably get around that by doing more is is with asia and latin america. the medium-term picture for china is not bad, even though
the equity market is volatile and it might look scary in the short-term, it can probably settle down and we can go ahead again for the next few months, but the longer-term picture is questionable. the medium-term looks good for china. rishaad: mark, good stuff. mark cranfield in singapore. you can follow more on this onry, just go to mliv gtv the bloomberg terminal for a run down, commentary, and instant experts from bloomberg's editors to find out how your money is being affected. yvonne: the economy feeling the pain of the trade war, export orders to the lowest level us month amid signs of a deepening factory downturn. there counting down to february trade figures from beijing today. ing greater china economist joining us in hong kong. we saw the upside surprise in
january. was that it clip or signs of green shoots? >> it will continue if the trade war is not clear. doing, havers are been doing is they have frontloaded the exports before the tariffs were announced. if they think that will be a tariff increase or the situation will worsen rather than become better, then they will continue to do this behavior. in february, it will be quite different, because the timeframe they can do this is very limited. usually in china for factories and shipping companies, the chinese new year holiday can range from 10 days to two weeks to three weeks, so it means they have one week or 10 days to do this, even if they want to. especiallyy figure,
the base effect from last year, will make this export growth different from january. rishaad: as you say, the new your holiday, the lunar holiday muddies the waters, but we have to take february and march together to build the picture? >> i will take it like this. i will take january and february together, then march as a standalone, then i may also, so january, this, february, march, then aggregate the first quarter and compare the first quarter to the first quarter of last year, because that will eliminate any chinese fects, but if you want to dig in deep how the first two months are doing, then you compare the first two months with last year's first two months. yvonne: given the growth
concerns with the ecb overnight and what we saw with australia, bank of canada as well, do you think it trade deal can remove this cloud hanging over businesses now, or is the global slowdown getting worse? the context ofn the trade agreement, if there is in the. whether they impose tariffs that will be lifted, that will change a lot. yvonne: can you quantify what kind of booze that could bring to exports? >> i don't know. really unwindn the situation back to the end of 2017, and that will be better for many exporters and manufactures, but i see this kind of trade agreement, trade negotiation, a little uncomfortable because it means
that it is not market-driven trade. for example, if we do not have this trade negotiations, then if i am an importer, i thought the goods -- i compare the quality and the price, then make a balance and look at my customers demand, then decide. also we have this kind of trade , itements or negotiations means it is not really market-driven. countryally bilateral behavior that drives my decision , the importers and exporters, the trade pattern could change quite a lot if this is not only china and u.s. if this is china u.s., europe, china, u.k., then the world trade pattern will change. rishaad: stick around and hold
that thought. question, ask this has there been a breakthrough in the negotiations between brussels and london? let's find out with first word news. >> we start with the eu and the latest on brexit. the eu has made a new offer to the u.k. to break the impasse. although it call short of what theresa may has been demanding. sources it concerns the average and focuses on bolstering the review system set out in the current deal. , brussels,ter may and conservative hardliners are arguing about how long the backstop should be enforced and how the u.k. would withdraw from it. , the intelligence agency says the north has resumed work at a long-range missile site with operations possibly beginning before the
sanctions take place. between -- site began between february 16 and those2, and was among promised after he met president trump in singapore. meanwhile, president trump's former campaign chairman paul manafort has been given less than four years in prison for bank and tax fraud. the 59-year-old faced much longer terms with the prospect of dying in jail, but the judge called the recommendation for 19 to 24 years in prison excessive. could get another decade when he is sentenced next week on conspiracy charges related to secret lobbying for ukraine. bloomberg has been told the money laundering scandal affecting european banks four is merely the tip of the iceberg and there could be $1 trillion and 30 money trying to get out of russia. billtage capital founder
browder has made a career out of chasing money launderers and says the illicit cash is al already in the system or looking for ways to move to the west. >> our investigation continues to lead to new evidence and the new information and new suspicious transactions. as long as it does, we will follow the evidence where it leads, and when we find money we willy laundering, make complaints to the law enforcement agencies of the countries where we find it. >> global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. rishaad: still ahead, slowing growth, our major central banks following the path of the boj? we discuss what ultra interest rates could mean. yvonne: the policies at this
have a chinese foreign minister talking about the recent summit between president trump and kim jong-un, saying the meeting "a kind of going on to say each side needs to take concrete measures and have patience. then talkingve about what came out of the npc day four, a flurry of initiatives, a shift that puts fiscal policy at the forefront of measures. rishaad: another change of
measures to support the private sector, and reigning in hidden debt. let's bring in our guest. it must be not well hidden debt, i suppose? >> it depends on how you look at it. they are allowing local governments special bond this year, which has been increased. this local government special bond, although it carries the name of local government, it is a corporate bond. , there is noctus contingent liability of the local governments on interest or principal, so it is really not a local government burden. this is where the hidden debt is hidden. it is now very welcomed in the market. rishaad: who carries the liability then? >> who buys it, right?
, it wasery beginning not welcomed by the markets because it is a new thing for a market, and only big banks were buying it. that was told by a friend it is oversubscribed by 20 times they say they yields are attractive, but it depends on how you look at it. i would say that now banks and some private funds are holding the special bonds, and they are, to buildngs are used more new roads, new metro rides -- lines. whether it is a hidden debt depends on future cash flows from these infrastructure investments. at expecte come
better cash flow of the new metro line then water management project. so it depends. it is international women's day -- rishaad: and we are wearing purple. yvonne: i want to ask you in terms of being a woman, an economist at a large bank, i was wondering what advice you would give to women out there, and what policies do you want to see in place to bridge that gender inequality cap? -- gap? >> many people ask me why i am an economist. they are surprised there is a female economist in the world. i am glad they asked this question. it should not be dictated by the gender. it is from the mindset. the mindset means education. if we go to the root, it means education. if we go further away, it is the
sistersllow friends and is, don't give up. of lessonf, in terms learned for business operators, yum china, we are very lucky. we have very good leaders for many generations to get to this womenin which 60% are among 450,000 staff, and in terms of leaders, half of us are women. we are very lucky, but we have certainly done something, i right to come to the stage. one is meritocracy. when ever women are in the system that emphasizes meritocracy, we don't do too badly.
, to have transparent promotion process. >> it is interesting as the female-led company that you have 50% of your leaders female as well. it is almost reaching the quota, although i don't think you have a quota. >> we don't have a quota. it is a natural process when the ceo is a woman. ofre are also a lot ambitious women who want to be in this company as well. i believe that is a good situation because role models to help. also, there are certain things that help, because it is very subtle. ,ometimes the bias, the system runs very deep. we need something to help improve the situation. work-life balance and issue for you as a female
leader? >> always. it is always a challenge for female or male, for all leaders. it is always a challenge. the key thing is i am lucky i have an amazing husband, who is willing to share the housework, the childcare. i think that is very critical. and then come of the other thing is just keep learning. i am a mom as well. being a working mom by far is the biggest challenge of life, even more challenging than being a ceo. i can only say it would just keep learning. that was the young china ceo speaking exclusively to bloomberg. the business flash headlines. has reached agreement on loans from chinese banks to build a factory and shanghai, including china construction bank, icbc, and a development
bank, offering the money in a series of loans. the banks are offering the equivalent of $521 million back in january. elon musk said they would need $500 million to build the plant. rishaad: more disappointing news for jaguar land rover, falling last month. jaguars grew 6%, but were dragged by declines of 8% of land rover. it says performance has been hurt by china, where february sales slumped 40%. t-mobile's review of has drawnf sprint criticism for reducing competition. the merger needs approval from regulators. they said together that they can offer a stronger challenge to at&t and verizon.
we are seeing relief when it , thoseo the chinext steep losses are raised. we are slightly lower, but still seeing pressure when it comes to a-shares and h-shares. what has been quarreling these markets? theis a downgrade, picc, insurance company in china slumping the most, going limit 6.5%,or a-shares, down after a sell rating after the shares quadrupled come up 138% this year. there is a sign that the government wants to slow down this rally. reviewing from the foreign ministry taking place in beijing, commenting and weighing huawei suese when
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>> the first learned headlines. -- word headlines. japan's economy expanded more than expected in the fourth quarter, driven by stronger business investment. gdp grew at 1.9% in the three months through december. that compares with an initial reading of 1.4% and a 1.7% estimate. outputcent gauges of give a gloomier report for this year. the eu says u.s. tariffs on car imports would further harm the global economy, and europe will retaliate if imposed.
the trade commissioner told bloomberg the eu is preparing a list of possible targets worth 20 billion year old's -- euros. the u.s. commerce department has submitted a report to president trump on national security. , wef that were to happen would have to impose rebalancing measures, then our relationship and other areas would be very difficult. york,nwhile in new president trump's former legal fixer is suing for what he claims are unpaid legal fees and costs. contracta breach of suit against the trump organization ahead of his date with prison inmate. it says he is the former private attorney for trump, down almost $2 million in expenses, and the same in penalties come at the organization promised to repay.
president trump has frequently denounced cohen as a liar. party that attempted to nominate the king sister for prime minister has been disbanded. it constitutional court says broke political roles by naming the princes. in -- publicly denounced the move as inappropriate. linked to the exiled former prime minister. global news 24 hours a day on air and on tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. yvonne: thanks. investors continue to be concerned with global growth. larry fink says the economy is in a goldilocks moment, not too good and not too bad. rishaad: he was speaking in
zürich at the blackrock wealth symposium, kicking off with china. >> china is slowing. it is slowing to 6%. >> that is what they say. >> ok, 5%. actually, the cities are growing nicely. it is the outer region. china has expressed the same two -phase economies where one part is going well and one is slowing down, so they will experience the same, maybe populism and unrest in the future. japan is growing at 1%. southeast asia is growing nicely , supply chains moving from china into the southeast asia region. january orpared to march of 2018, we were much more pessimistic. i am very worried about europe. that does not mean europe will ,e in recession in 2019, but it maybe it is 1% growth, probably
closer to zero. in the u.s., we had the sugar high from the tax reforms. we all anticipated the economy would slow down after the sugar high, and that is what is happening. where is the u.s. economy? -- 2.5%, 2.6%, 2.7%. commerce is still good. i would almost call this a goldilocks moment, where it is not so bad, not so good. central bank behaviors are probably more on the dovish side from where they were in the fourth quarter. so i would say it is time for investors to be more relaxed. i don't think we will go much higher than we are today. >> you mean stock prices? >> we will be fine. what i worry about still is rising populism, which what we are witnessing from rising populism, we are seeing
shorter-term behaviors by governments. i talked quite a bit about long-term behaviors. it gets harder and harder when you see governments are becoming more and more short-term. reassuring, i suppose, perspective from the ceo. let's get more perspective on his perspective. he thinks many global economies are slowing down, but that doesn't necessarily mean recession, certainly in the u.s. with growth of 2%, but what do the numbers tell us? >> numbers can change rapidly. way, is thes economy sinking or treading water? it is no doubt it can slow down without heading into recession. let's look at the ecb. their darker outlook is driven by china's economic slowdown,
the fear that brexit won't be soft and will turn into a hard brexit, the trade war impact catching up, maybe even continuing. ,n turn, it looks the other way a slow down in europe hurts exporters like china, u.s. experts to the euro area. at the chartlook from the bloomberg library that underscores broadly that trade has taken a hit. look at the slowdown in global trade going into the end of 2018. our index was 127, now 122. that reminds us that this is taking a bite. if you want to look at a bright spot in the world, you can look at the u.s. the federal reserve continues to say domestic growth is pretty solid. that is not there worry. let's look at gdp. quarter, the down revision was much stronger than expected at 2.6%, down from
2.8%. even though the economy was growing at 3% earlier this year, most people are looking at 2% to 2.5%. that is certainly not on the verge of recession. i think larry fink is right. maybe things are slowing down, but they are still looking good. the question is how these global forces play out and what happens next. the oecd made a lot of waves when it cut its global growth forecast, especially europe. do you think mario draghi delivered yesterday? was it enough to boost growth, and wasn't first in this that we heard? i think mario draghi show the ecb is listening. he would do that targeted lending again. it may not be as richly structured as the previous two rounds, but he is listening and cautious. that is an important signal to
send to markets. in the u.s., let's look at speech, one fed president said the u.s. has been adding jobs. there may be downside risks, but at home things are good. she noted demand softening, consumer spending softening. that is a problem. john williams said on the global side that this is the biggest risk. i want to look at another chart from our bloomberg library. odds, fourn countries, japan is the red line them of the blue line is the u.k., the purple line is the euro area, and the white line is the u.s. they have all recent come and there are many reasons they go up and down. yes, there are many things coming together that would suggest something could happen to push the global economy into gotssion, but that chart
high at times and nobody went into recession. a recession usually takes some kind of shock. an economy can flatten out, that it needs something big like the financial crisis of 2008 to make a big difference. yvonne: thank you. up, goldman sachs achieve japan strategist, her take on the latest gdp numbers. by shinzo abe as the architect of the womenomics policy. this is bloomberg. ♪
quarter contraction of 2.4%. treat --ecent fax factory output point to a gloomy 2019. the data still looks mixed. rishaad: it does. let's get straight to the goldman sachs chief vice chair and chief japan strategist. shinzo abe credits you being the driving force between so-called womenomics. ?hat is womenomics how has shinzo abe addressed it, and what more needs to be done? >> sure, so what is womenomics? a combination of women and economics. it was a term we crafted 20 years ago in 1999 when i was trying to figure out what the heck is japan going to do about its demographic crisis, and looking around me, i saw very talented, highly educated women,
some of them working, but many not working outside the home, particularly after they started having children, so we did some numbers and looked if you could close the gender gap in men andnt with japanese women rising to the same level, but that could amount to a significant boost to gdp. our most recent estimate is 2014, which produced a list of gdp of his much is almost 13%. in terms of policies, it ranges from the infrastructure side of things, to provide more capacity for day care for more young children. force companies to disclose data on gender diversity, something japan has never really done before. not everything is wonderful yet. it is a work in progress, but there has been quite a lot of work done to date. yvonne: i was reading this new
york times article the other day. they had this analysis on government data. women who work more than 49 hours a week typically do close hours of household worker week. is this a matter of legal barriers, or we are actually seeing a shift in cultural gender stereotypes? >> i think articles like that are portraying reality at the end of the day, but it is important to mention that a lot of this has to do do with the way japanese companies operate, especially at the personnel level. , theycal japanese company really evaluate personnel on the basis of time, as opposed to performance or output. the basis of time is your main metric, then it is the person earning the income for the
household is trying to perform well, they will spend maximum time out of the house with the company and minimum time at home , so we have to get to the root of this system. it is not a legal obstacle. companies have the ability to change that system. it is just how it has been running for many decades. it is one starting point. it is encouraging to see millennials, young people who say they don't want to work 24/7 , married to my company and job. i would like to spend more time with my family and work outside the home. i am hopeful and it will take more time, but i am hopeful this younger generation will move the needle faster than we have seen to date. rishaad: are you seeing any of the benefits, of the fruits of womenomics yet in your view? with the gdp numbers, better than expected from that contraction in the previous
quarter, is there anything you take heart from? >> for example, not per capita wage data, which is still flat, but total aggregate employee income, it is running at a close to 4%of for japan, which is unheard of. the reason those numbers are so high is because we have record female labor participation in japan. there are more women working in japan than in the united states of america, for instance. another driver is older people, post-retirement, going back into work, so we are seeing some of this greater womenomics at work, female participation feeding into higher incomes, helping to underpin the consumption trends we have been seeing of late. is still early days and a lot of work still needs to be done. it is also unfair to say that
nothing has changed and nothing is happening either. youne: i just want to ask to talk about the japanese equity market. we have a chart that shows where flows have been going. it seems like there is more interest from international investors towards china, em. what is the bullish case for japanese equities? what is the outlook from you? >> i can tell you having traveled from much of the world is not aate that there lot of interest or focus on the japanese market, despite the fact earnings have doubled and valuations are back to recessionary level lows, about 12 times pe. foreigners have exited japan since the middle part of 2015. light, and that reflects the general skepticism that it can continue, number one, and number two, there is an
under appreciation of what is most exciting in the market today, corporate governance reforms and the implications thereof. we are seeing never before seen announcements by banks of companies of unraveling shareholders, activists going into companies and putting their representatives on boards of japanese companies in troubled situations. it is still early days and there is a lot of work ahead, but a lot of these things that foreign investors were skeptical japan would never change, we are starting to see cracks in the system generating some very interesting single stop opportunities within the market. i personally believe as an active investor that we are japan,pe funds flow into a tremendous amount of opportunities given have to market is still trading below book value and positioning is still extremely light. yvonne: always great to have you. the goldman sachs vice chair and chief japan equity strategist.
rishaad: j.p. morgan the other day said there would be interest-rate cuts in australia. saying there will be two cuts. sanguine as to where interest rates were headed this year. yvonne: a little movement in the aussie dollar, but we have seen these down drifts already given westpac, j.p. morgan, now nab joining, and it will be tough for them to hike rates any time this year. let's bring it back to international women's day. how much access do women have when it comes to trillions of dollars in assets? the dry powder from both private equity investor capital are hitting record levels, $3 trillion in management, but little finds its way to female-but businesses. we have been looking at all this. what is your take on this? >> there are more startups being
led by women. one of the big problems is that deep rooted issue when women actually try to get that capital. that issue comes down to investor biases, and people want to go with what is familiar. the think about the kind of companies that people are investing in, health care, a minority of these copies are run by women. i think that is the root of the issue. yvonne: is there a solution to it? >> you don't know what you don't know, which is what subconscious bias is. you see someone coming down the hallway wearing heels, do you have preconceived notions before the person walks into the interview? you go by the questions investors ask founders in meetings. they are very much focused on
potential losses, on risk management. how are you going to do things? they are very defensive, versus male founders, which is about growth and expansion, lofty visions and so on. it becomes the case for how do donge that thinking, and how you start with collecting data and showing, yes, valuations are higher. rishaad: there is some negative feedback? >> absolutely. there are less women becoming ceos because less women businesses are getting money, therefore less women rise to the top. private equity also has a problem with fewer women at the top, so that means the gender imbalance -- and it doesn't have to be all women are all men -- it is about a balanced gender approach. three is the tipping point, and that is not asking for much. let's say you have a typical board of 10 or 11, so it's not
yvonne: time now for the battle of the charts. , basicallyants growth in singapore. our cross essence market editor, and melissa on breaking news. they will pit their best charts against each other. viewers can access the charts running the function at the bottom of your screen, gtv . rishaad: ladies first. singapore versus the lion city. yvonne: melissa? rishaad: what have you got? >> i came prepared. i have a chart on asian economies. see the white line represent south korea's manufacturing pmi. the blue represents taiwan. both are showing a gloomy downward trend. has reacheds pmi the worst reading since 2015,
and taiwan at the lowest reading in more than three years. both fell below 50. that signals a contraction. it is showing a worsening outlook for a region of trade-reliant economies, especially as they battle waning global demand and lingering trade tensions. while a trade deal would alleviate some pessimism, there are other risks like brexit and potential u.s. levies on automobiles. the outlook does not look too good for asia. with that, i will hand off. i want to say, if you win, i fully support you. it is ok in the spirit of international women's day. go girls. rishaad: go on. yvonne: i like the sportsmanship. it is great. joanna? my chart is international women's day-themed, basically as we look at the overall issue of equality, we want to think about
performance and incentives for people to include women. here is one demonstration that it does make sense. if you look at hedge fund indexes, the index of women-owned hedge funds has been outperforming broader indexes by quite a lot, actually, in the last few years. they have done really well. if you are thinking about where to put her money, you might want to consider with us women-own funds. rishaad: you know, it is international women's day. melissa, sorry. i have to give it to joanna. yvonne: it was a good chart. rishaad: in the spirit of collectivism, i suppose, we have to. yvonne: congratulations. we will take you through some more lines from gtv . that is where you go for those charts, but some lines coming through with the foreign ministry talking about the u.s.
and china. they want to send into confrontation, that the decoupling of economies is "wishful thinking." it brings up the question of where this leads in terms of the trade negotiations. rishaad: very interesting chinese andying the russian leaders relationship is a world model. yvonne: positive when it comes to the future of u.s. ties. rishaad: clearly more than one country is opposing unilateralism. that is what we have coming out of the foreign ministry briefing in beijing. more on the way, including what is going on market wise. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
>> it is almost 11:00 in singapore. i am juliette solely. last moment of the morning session in hong kong. asia extending the wall street slide among concerns about growth. institutions cutting forecasts. >> the picture could further darken when we get data from china. differing views from washington and beijing. the u.s. saying they are close to a deal. this is bloomberg markets.
♪ is a down day for asian stocks. for their worst weekly loss this year. chinese stocks hit hard. as we have been discussing, probably not that surprising giving the strong bull run in chinese equities. down 2%, hong kong's market also under pressure. every market we track under pressure. holding at onen point highs. the dollar ato the moment. we are closely waiting for the trade china data. put together are going to give us a clear
indication of how much the trade -- spat is hurting the second-biggest economy. again sticking with markets and the prospects for the indian session, it is one where we are seeing movement to the downside. dollar, gaining a bit of ground against its indian counterpart. year indian the 10 sovereign bond unchanged. let's check out what is going on elsewhere. set to have made a new offer to the u.k. to break the though it falls short of what theresa may has been demanding.
may and conservative hardliners are arguing about how long it should be enforced. intelligence agency says the north has resumed work at a long-range missile site. indicate workes at the survey sites again -- be gan -- dismantling the site was among steps promised by kim jong-un. paul manafort has been given less than four years in prison for bank and tax fraud. he faced the prospect of dying in jail, but a judge called 19-24 years excessive. he could get as long as a decade in prison when he is faced on conspiracy charges desk faces conspiracy charges -- when he
faces conspiracy charges. mmt supporters argue because the u.s. r.o.c. its own money, it can simply print cash to power obligations. jay powell, larry summers, and others are mmg critics. >> that is garbage. >> you are with jay powell. does not help modern economic growth. yes, i am a big believer dax visits -- deficits do matter. drive interestto rates higher and could drive them to unsustainable levels. >> journalists and analysts.
this is bloomberg. economy.on the global there is a feeling the trade war is hurting export. china slumping to the lowest level in a decade. juliette: joining us for more on head of financial markets asia. great to have you with us. when we last spoke, september last year, we had not seen the full escalation of the trade dispute. now we are starting to see headlines of perhaps a resolution. we have seen this spat start to hurt the growth engine. the tension between
the u.s. and china is more than just about trade. property,t geopolitical and economic conflict. morelowdown in china is than just the impact of trade. it is because of the deleveraging drive. more recently, we have seen a progrowth agenda. cuts, measures for infrastructure spending. the privatert for sector. chinese authorities do have the ability as well as the willingness to create momentum in a flagging growth environment. we expect of 6.1% growth. >> i was going to ask you what
your forecast was. what is going to be the main of more momentum coming into the chinese economy when authorities are struggling with how much stimulus they can put in in terms of not wanted to over leverage? we have seen the progrowth agenda on the fiscal side. the monetary side as well. monetary conditions are easing. expecting 100 basis points. what is interesting is with the inclusion of the government bonds in the bloomberg barclays seeal bond index, we could $150 billion of inflows. i do see that as an attractive utility -- opportunity. >> what about the run in the --
currency? similar to levels last year? >> i think it will continue to be in the range. we think risks to the downside and the upside are balanced. given on a relative basis i would lean toward strength for the u.s. dollar side. chart at theave a top of the show. seen this movement in terms of exports stalling. what we could potentially see for these china trade deals. impact do you think the trade sentiment -- the dispute is having not only to this but export orders? there is an effect on the
slowdown, the u.s. china trade tensions. machineries imported into china from korea, taiwan. the slowdown.g to we are seeing a slowdown and external demands. rmb bonds as ad place to go. what other places could you be looking for people? fall in yields globally. >> the broad sense i would have, what might be interesting, in australia, we haven't talked since the last time have kept a steady rate call.
the cash rate to be at 1.5%. ago, our chief economist lowered his growth forecast. the slowdownse of negative wealth effect on the consumer. forecastllowing us to two rate cuts. that was certainly an interesting point. us, in singapore. foreigno, chinese and deities. questionable hiring practices. job numbers.
i am juliette saly in singapore. and -- rishaad somma let's have a look at the latest business flash headlines. we are told the lenders include china construction bank. teaming up to offer the money in a series of loans. the banks offering the million.t of $521 back in january, elon musk said they would need 500 million to build it. at jaguar land rover $38,000 -- 38,000
cars. they said the performance has china, one february sales plunged for a 7%. >> the arrest and attention of reform tosn may bring the japanese criminal justice system. he was in prison for 108 days before being granted bail this week. >> it is too long. the government, the judiciary system should explain to global markets. another point is the corporate governance. what he did was wrongdoing. instead of going to the --
by corporate e.vernmenc >> as policymakers digest the european bank's dovish shifts, we are also looking ahead to the -- month, no small potatoes. we have been watching a long time the economic reports of the u.s.. the monthly jobs report is the big one. you see the whole economy, every industry, and you have some leading information. in terms of what happened last month, this is a very important part of the setup. payrollsr for nonfarm was pretty strong. that was about 1.5 times as big as the forecast.
that is a turquoise bar at the far right. the yellow line is the three-month average. hourly earnings, wages, they are definitely up. not a really strong number but stronger than it was. what is expected? 's start with the payrolls. of consensus is a bump 108,000. a very solid number. unemployment supposed to fall. earnings going up. let's talk about the bloomberg economics team. report, coming in like a lion. for are not looking 180,000. they are looking for a gain of
250,000. or, but itay role would be interesting to see what it does to the markets. >> would another stronger than forecast number test the fed's patience? >> that is the question of the day. people wondering if the whole world is slowing down. fed officials have been weighing the market against the persistent global risks like the trade war. after the policy meeting, jay powell was asked what you would need to get back on the rate hike path. to show was going three very important lines. the top one is unemployment.
the bottom ones are cpi and average hourly earnings. that is what the fed is going to be watching very closely tomorrow. data, china's trade coming up way more than expected. another blowout on the export front. this is a correction taking place. the other way around. a massive disappointment. down 6.6%. quite the contrary to the original headline. reaction. what is your reaction? is it showing a gain? numbers showing the global economy is slowing down faster than people expected? >> you are going to after a that question for me.
>> 16.6% drop. are you surprised? >> i think this is a surprise. it should not come as a complete surprise. we have seen a slowdown in the u.s.. we were expecting a 3% in the u.s.. this year, 2.5% of growth. marketh the u.s. labor has remained strong, the level will hold up the growth in the economy. at the same time, there are parts of the economy slowing down. to answer your previous question, the u.s. will hold toehold with their position on interest rates. the posit the beginning of the year. anticipating only one rate hike at the end of the year. points.20 basis
>> what did you read from mario draghi's commentary? that is another i guess inflection point. some saying his forecast is probably too optimistic for the eurozone. >> i think markets were surprised at the dovishness. that, also in the currency. >> we will return in a moment. these china numbers coming through in terms of dollars. hefty when you look at this. -- exports down 27%. as we were mentioning before, the trade balance, the estimate billion yuan.
the dollar numbers strong in terms of a drop. you have been talking about some these central banks turning dovish. do you think there is this movement coming back through or a greater deal of caution? >> there is a fair amount of uncertainty. the majority of the ceos we investmentll tell us is on hold because of that. callswhat draghi uncertainty. >> it is international women's day. what do you see bridging the gender divide? >> i think it is about women finding their unique voice. to have a clear aspiration and stay at it. >> thank you for joining us. the head of financial markets asia on bloomberg. coming up, how twitter is
social media is a significant campaign channel for election candidates across asia. criticized rivals. the chitter asia chief talks about how it is looking to restrict the spread of faking news. >> elections are important moments for twitter. signomised to show every of the story. what better way to do that when -- then when elections are happening. in markets like india and australia, we are bringing
learning. while we continue to focus on the big pillar of our strategy which is health and being able to enable people to have a free outopen conversation with destruction or malicious news. stepat is twitter doing to up these concerns and privacy concerns? >> privacy is incredibly important to us and has always been. jacku have ever heard dorsey talk about this, it is close to our heart. fake accounts,o our effort has been on the pillar of health. improving healthy conversations on the platform. between efforts on product, on
made tremendous steps. we have shown we are able to up the number of issues we are catching in time by three times. there is a lot of effort put across product and policy. we are seeing we are making great strides. a front runner in terms of moving forward cracking down on fake accounts and streamline the content? believe for us to be in a position of healthy policyations, we need and ai efforts. same extent, our efforts in video on the platform help our advertisers get to healthy and brand safe advertising
conversations. across bothapproach parts of our business. was speaking to me at twitter's asian headquarters in singapore. >> let's get to the story of the moment. trade balance data. a big miss happening. on can lay some of the blame this being the lunar holiday. exports dropping 20.7% in february. surplus. a trade economists are forecasting exports and imports would shrink , although not as much as they have fallen. unexpected drop. imports, after the number, largely erased. some of that could have been
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juliette: it is almost 11:30 a.m. in the lion that he. the middle of the trading day, not looking very good. down 0.7%. stocks on track to post their worst weekly loss since december. certainly these global growth concerns weighing into investor sentiment. let's get the first word news with rosalind chin. exports are worst than expected in dollar terms. shipments fell 21% compared to estimates. imports came in below forecast, just over 5% against projections
of a drop. economists were expecting $25 billion. the fed governor says weakening economic outlooks could lead to speech in princeton, new jersey, he said a modest slowdown could offset the weakness weighing on the economy. used the word patients. the euro fell to the weakest level against the dollar after almost two bank years after that ecb cut its outlook. indexomberg dollar surged to the highest level so far. thisll only grow 1.1% year, zero point 6% below the forecast of three months ago.
a money laundering scandal is merely the tip of the iceberg and there could be as much as a trillion dollars of dirty money trying to get out of russia. has made a career out of chasing money launderers and says the illicit cash is already in the system are looking for ways to move to the west. our investigation continues to lead to new evidence and information and suspicious transactions. and follow the evidence where it leads. when we find money, we find money laundering. we will make complaints to the law enforcement agencies where we find it read >> the type party -- sayse constitutional court brokee -- he constitutional rules.
global news, 24 hours a day. powered by more than 2700 in 120ists, analysts countries. i'm rosalind chin. this is louisburg. -- bloomberg. negativity but this is what we have. the nikkei coming back after the lunch break. let's get to the chinese markets. have a look at how they did. composite, 2.9 percent down. the move triggered by the disappointment. concerns about what has been happening with the global economy. warning about economic difficulties. the slowdown taking place. this is the market which has been -- down eight shares.
that is the position of the month. barely moving, 6.72 at the moment. that is a current look at the action. get more on that -- let's get more on that china market slump. surprising? it is a most like we were kind of expecting somewhat of a correction. >> i don't think people are surprised china markets are correcting. there must be a lot of hot money. that is not a surprise. data, it is still pretty awful and does show china has as much incentive as donald trump. tomay see a bit of a ramp up get that sorted out. having said all that, china is putting in so much stimulus,
they can probably ride this out. data will start to improve. for today, it sets up a nasty day. they are going into the lunch break now. we have been getting used to afternoon rallies. we might not get one today. >> let's not forget about this, following a narrative. we have the european central bank warning about growth in europe. knife to theng a previous forecast. a lot of walls of worry to be climbing. >> it does give investors something to think about. haveor central bank who slashed their own forecast. sayingre already people they might be too optimistic with the forecast even now. maybe the ecb is seeing something in their data
investors have not yet seen. it is disturbing that is going on. it could be is isolate it to europe. it is definitely a worry when you have such an important central bank who seems to be throwing in the towel and sa id we can't even think about hiking rates. it is a concerning situation. just that europe underperforms the rest of the world. the rest do not do too badly. a lot to digest compared to what the ecb did yesterday. >> always a pleasure. follow more on that story. you can also look at how the day's trading is being interpreted. you can get a market run down. an analysis from our expert
editors. have a look at what is affecting your investments right now. inthe global forum kicks off shanghai today. it brings together global leaders from industry, government, and academia. it's go to david and glass -- ngles. >> exciting times. business leaders talking about opportunities. lots of opportunities. despite the slowdown. by a managinghere partner. i have to start out right asking you about the slowdown in the economy. you look at the headlines, the numbers, it is slowing down. is that affecting your portfolio companies on the ground?
>> the short answer is not really. are two different perspectives. you look at the macro number. even from the last decade, china has enjoyed over 10% growth. but it has gone down steadily. if we take the conservative 6%, that will still translate into 5 trillion additional gdp. there is a lot of money to be made. for us as investors, we would focus on the preselected sectors. to at least represent double the growth rate. there is a strong, robust demand. health care, education and so forth. we would focus on picking the leading players and further double the growth rate.
>> that is revenue. >> that is revenue. we are not worried too much. >> where are those companies? >> one is a strong growth in the middle class sector. we are talking about 50 million population. comparable to the spending power. that number will triple in the next 10 years. we are talking about 150 million people. this group of people demographically is 15 years on younger compared to american counterparts. sectorstranslate into like better health care, aging care. education, international travel and so far. that is one of the strong drivers for those sectors.
the other part is universal technology impact. would be inularly the sectors that have productivity. the e-commerce, you cut the middlemen. or logistics, efficiency, operating efficiency. average fromg at seattle to d.c.. the same thing would be looked to shanghai. operational efficiency would be hugely improved if you look at the technology. we will blame the fundamental change. there is also a shared economy. data analytics and artificial intelligence applied to sin tech -- fintech services.
>> a lot of people are looking at the same thing. i would say compared to 10 years ago, the big tech firms have their own funds. our valuations still elevated? because you have competition, is it easier or harder to do business? first question is about the valuation. there was a little bubble in the last few years. last three-four lessers, given the lower, passionate response from the market, we are already seeing the correction. major ipos did not go up as expected. even though there could be a change of climate, i'm not going
to predict on that. we felt like the valuation was getting more reasonable for now and probably for the next three quarters as well. >> markets much better than last year. are you looking to exit? some portfolio companies might be taking advantage of this? >> we have a strong pipeline looking for exit in the next 1-2 years. >> in terms of the new tech aboard? they are drawing up these plans, how will this be different from the one in shenzhen now? what needs to happen for this one to be successful? fromere is huge support top management in china that will determined to make the new exchange successful.
there is a fundamental change in terms of approval processes. details, theynote are being finalized. people in general are very enthusiastic and looking at it as a positive impact especially for tech investment. >> there are lots of startups, sometimes too many. are some opportunities out there. what is one industry where you hope there will be more entrepreneurs? but there are not enough choices? >> well, we are probably seeing startups flourish in the new tech. in the traditional sector, cash flow rich, education,
historically being a defensive play, but with the right technology, online combination, offline ip's, a new generation of new content. there is a lot of new technology , a new startup could play a fundamental impact where i hope given the right policy support, capital would follow. glad you are wearing a collar. you have done very successful. just won the chief investment officer of the year award. of the gender gap, how has that improved, and what needs to happen for that to close?
underrepresentation of female leadership is a issue across the board. not only in china but in western countries as well. group, -- the group with a lot of female executives, we are always advocating how to better help women to grow. think with the right conviction, the right opportunity, you will thrive. it is more about get your voice heard and get your self seeing, not being afraid of trying to step up. >> judy, thank you so much. great insights and opportunities. where we need to go with this gender gap conversation. going to have a look at the
open in india. following what has been affecting what is going on in this part of the world. rupee, there with the dollar, up 0.2%. it has been all about that trade number out of china. big falls in imports as well as exports. looking at what is happening in china through the lens of the u.s. ambassador to the country. this is bloomberg. ountry. this is bloomberg.
made. we will see a significant trade agreement reached addressing some of these fundamental issues that have not been addressed for a long time such as intellectual property rights. technology transfer. aspects to certain aspects of the chinese market. have been putting a lot of time and effort into it. d.c., theymeeting in agreed to stay two more days. they have continued conversations since then. we won something that is going to be of substance addressing these fundamental issues and something that is enforceable. expect thee
presidents will meet towards the end of march? >> that would be the hope. we meet and they feel like they thinking theygh are close enough to finalize it. in march. heard dates is that accurate? >> i think it is important we continue to work diligently to get the details worked out. people are taking it seriously, they are putting any time and effort and it is getting closer. >> you talked about the quality of the deal. we are hearing from our sources and have been doing reporting president trump is focused on the impact to the markets. i wonder if that pressure risks a bad deal? >> i think the president is
interested in doing what previous administration's have not been able to do, address these fundamental issues such as the transfer of technology. enforcing intellectual property rights. of this market that have been closed. we have talked about that. china given to the world trade organization back in 2001. they promised to do these things and failed to. i think president trump wants to be the one that want something lasting accomplished. the people negotiating this are focused on those issues. is tenacious and focused on getting something that is going to be significant.
deal made up of reducing trade barriers, huge purchases of things like agricultural products and energy, promises on structural reform, is that still he win? >> that is the problem of the past. we have gotten these through administration after ministry they have not followed through. it has not been accomplished. and theretary mnuchin ambassador are focusing on is in an folk -- is a mechanism that makes it possible to enforce it or penalize china if they don't. >> it will involve the use of tariffs? >> i am not sure what that is. brought china to the bargaining table and
convinced them there needs to be fundamental changes made. i don't know the details. the leadnfidence is focusing on those things he thinks have not been addressed in the past. enforcementof the mechanism, is that the sticking point? >> it is one of the most important aspects of it. addressing these issues and having an enforcement mechanism to see that china does fulfill the promises they make. >> the u.s. ambassador speaking to our correspondent. , advertising for good looking tech workers.
>> a presentable face under 30. good-looking. these are requirements in job by some tech startups in china. we have been looking at this. silicon valley has been criticized for sexism. how is china different? >> what stands out is the blatant sexism and ageism on the platforms, job postings. go on the largest job posting see phrasesd you like we have so many beauties.
mindlessacross as a catchphrase. we should not underestimate the affected has on people and company policies. people seldom pay attention anymore. >> it seems extraordinary this language is allowed. not beingies punished? is that why they are getting away with it? >> i think it is a combination of factors we are experiencing right now even after the me too movement. a lack of enforcement of law. also the fact there is a huge culture issue and china right now. likely wrote a few weeks ago. dealmaking at escort clubs, that is a huge thing. people see it as a common
practice. you have these startups that are really ambitious. really focused on growth. the notion of corporate governance does not exist. lack of punishment. incentive fore or them to change these practices. >> great reporting as always. looking ahead to some of the key events we will be watching here in asia coming up on saturday. china posting the latest inflation data for consumers and producers. tuesday, it is india's turn to report how much prices are rising. >> thursday, revealing -- reviewing retail sales. on friday, it is the bank of decide onrn to monetary policy. what will they be doing exactly?
♪ emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." coming up the next hour, the facebook's new mission. the social network is about to get a lot less social. what is the motivation behind the move? plus, follow the money. spending a record amount of cash to get the zte agenda on track. and rec,